50 Days of the Presidency

A few hard fought wins, some setbacks and lack of clarity on certain policies marks the first 50 days of the Obama presidency. Although the first two months of a presidency provide no sustaining indication of what is to come, these two months of the Obama presidency contrast the preceding two years of the Obama political campaign.

The tight message and effective recovery from stumbles—characteristic of Barack Obama’s political campaign, are slowly passing off to memory. The misses have been significant, and but for an opposition trying to find its way, President Obama could have taken lasting blemishes in what has transpired since he took office on January 20th.

To his credit, the President has managed to get his economic stimulus passed, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, meeting his original goal of getting it through the Congress prior to President’s Day in February. However, with three Republicans supporting it in the Senate, the stimulus was a partisan effort.

Again to his credit, President Obama signed a $410 billion spending bill. But, it has earmarks—incentive packages for local representatives, viewed as a wasteful use of public funds. The passing of the bill was a success, although the insertion of earmarks defies campaign promises.

In the heat of the campaign battle, the President had essentially neutralized John McCain’s long record of opposing earmarks by conveying “no pork barrel spending,” if he got elected. He has gone back on his word and now the administration is attempting to drive transparency on earmarks as a recovery method.

These two examples show tactical successes for President Obama albeit a dichotomy from his campaign rhetoric of inclusiveness and a commitment to stop special interests.

On foreign policy, the administration is just getting started and it is too early to derive conclusions. In these early days the Obama team has spanned out to far parts of the world. Envoy over super envoy are focusing on critical geographies, including Afghanistan and Israel, but what remains to be seen is how these super-diplomatic-sleuths will play out with the Secretary of State who runs the bureaucracy from Foggy Bottom, farther away from what is a highly centralized White House.

In these early days, the administration has not taken any definitive stance on engaging historically hostile states such as Iran, something that candidate Obama had suggested he would do.

The administration seems to be caught in a justifiable dilemma—to engage with Ahmedinejad or wait for the outcome of the impending elections in Iran this summer. And as this gets deliberated, the decades long policy of record for local US diplomats around the world to not communicate or engage with their local Iranian counterparts continues.

India, for the most, has not featured prominently in the new administration’s agenda. Although, getting itself excluded from Richard Holbrooke’s docket in his ambiguous charter as an envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan was a diplomatic win for India. But, there are no visible signs in the first 50 days that India is holding the same attention in the Obama administration that it did in Bush’s second term.

Indians are eagerly watching the new administration’s stance on global trade. To that end, what is bound to impact the Indian economy is the long speculated protectionist tilt of the new administration. Early signs show that the comparative advantage theory has been firmly put aside and a buy American approach has been adopted.

As a result the growth in local job markets is bound to help the US economy, a similar stance adopted by other countries would be detrimental to the US and generally the global economy. The fear is that this walled view of trade may serve as an excuse for other countries to raise their trade barriers.

This is where one hopes that the protectionist tilt is temporary and on the first signs of recovery, the Obama administration will promote free(er) trade, understandably under a more regulated environment.

A true disappointment in the first 50 days has been the administration’s stance on skilled labor. The restriction on hiring H-1B workers for companies who have received federal funds stands as a stark example where the policy makers of the new administration seem to be myopic in their desire to respond to populist pressures.

The Wall Street Journal editorial called the H-1B restriction “another harmful stimulus provision,” citing 2007 data that show Citibank hired 185 H-1B workers representing .04 percent of its 387,000 employees and Bank of America hired 66 H-1B workers representing .03 percent of its 210,000 employees.

Beyond specific policies, as one looks at the Obama team’s management, it is obvious that the swift, disciplined start that the transition team showed after the elections has now waned. What stands out are multiple setbacks on selecting nominees for the Commerce Department, tax problems for their first choice for Secretary of Health and Human Services and the early bruising battle with the confirmation of Secretary Geithner for Treasury.

To exacerbate the challenge, there are hundreds of positions in the bureaucracy that remain vacant. The administration is seen scrambling from the urgent to the critical in its expansive platform that has already touched economic policy, national security, healthcare and education.

All in all, the demigod status gained by Obama as he wrapped up the election in 2008 seems to have been humanized and that in many ways may be a good thing for the administration. However, people will continue to look for “Change, and a different type of politics” from Washington D.C., and on that front the Obama administration has little to show in the first 50 days.

The President and his men would be well reminded what another President said over 150 years ago “Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed.”

This quotation by President Lincoln has been experienced in half by President Obama. In his political campaign he has seen the power of the public sentiment working in his favor. One hopes that he stays true to his political rhetoric and brings change to Washington—in a bipartisan, transparent manner. If not, public sentiment is bound to turn against him and without it nothing can succeed.

(First published in India Abroad.)